Capturing EV charging opportunities

This is part of a series of influencer blogs for Economist Impact's rEV Index.

Transport electrification is key to meeting climate change goals

As one of the largest emitting sectors contributing to 21% of CO2 emissions in 2020, transport is key to meeting Paris agreement climate goals. But substantial change is required for electrification to play a central role in transport decarbonisation. Globally, the car fleet needs to be almost fully electrified by 2050, with IEA’s analysis highlighting that EVs would account for 20% of vehicle stock in 2030¹ and 86% by 2050 under a net zero pathway.²

Electrification could result in large-scale spatial and temporal change in energy use

All these EVs will need to be charged. Our analysis indicates that by 2030 around 40m public, and 1,400m private, charging units for all EVs are required globally³—almost five times the current level of provision. Electricity demand will increase accordingly, impacting all components of the electricity system: how it is produced, how it is transmitted over long distances, and how it is distributed locally. Extensive efforts will be needed to ensure the stability and flexibility of supply.

Charging vehicles at peak times and the impacts of residential charging on local networks—especially where there are spatial clusters of EV charging—are key concerns. Charging at home after work currently accounts for 80–90% of EV charging in the US and Europe.⁴ EV adopters also tend to live in the same area. At a local level, EV charging can therefore significantly increase and change the timing and size of electricity loads as well as negatively impact on power quality or reliability. In Hamburg, Germany, analysis found that a 9% EV share would lead to bottlenecks in 15% of the power lines,⁵ while in the UK, the My Electric Avenue trial suggests that once 40% of customers have EVs, 32% of the network that connects consumers to the grid would need upgrading.⁶

Managing consumer demand, using batteries for storage, and encouraging charging when renewable energy generation is at its highest all play a role in reducing these impacts.

Charging needs to be smart and strategic

Smart charging will be key to all of these efforts. Simple solutions can and are being implemented. These include the promotion of workplace charging so that vehicles are charged during the day rather than at peak times, and offering consumers financial incentives through the use of cheaper, off-peak tariffs. In IEA’s Sustainable Development Scenario—where EVs are 14% of car vehicle stock in 2030—workplace daytime charging could move 50 GW of energy to off-peak,⁷ while night-time tariffs could move a further 110 GW of energy. Shifting the timing of EV charging will be key in the context of future energy demand from other sectors which arise in the evenings. This demand includes connected devices, shifts to electric cooking and increasing use of space cooling. These can contribute as much as 30% of peak load in places with high air conditioner ownership such as China.⁸

More complex, managed charging strategies are required to meet increasing demand. Managed charging allows energy companies to remotely control EV charging to better correspond to the needs of the grid. It can be from the grid to vehicles (unidirectional charging) and from vehicles to anything (bidirectional charging). For the latter, energy is taken from car batteries and given back to the grid or to buildings, allowing spikes in electricity demand to be met. These technologies make using renewable energy easier. Intermittent energy sources such as solar or wind can charge the battery when available and then store this energy until needed. This can bring more substantial savings compared to demand management, which can also result in financial benefits to consumers through reduced charging costs. Vehicle-to-grid applications, for example, could offer 600 GW of flexible capacity in 2030 globally under the IEA’s Sustainable Development Scenario.⁹

In the UK, the combination of demand management and managed charging is estimated to provide savings of £2.2bn (US$3bn) through avoided network reinforcement costs over the next 35 years.¹⁰ In New York, net societal benefits from utilities facilitating off-peak EV charging were found to be in the region of £1.5bn (US$2bn).¹¹

Managed charging requires systems change, and consumer acceptance is key to success

For grid-to-vehicles charging, electricity provision to the vehicles is controlled and optimised—for example, through timing and rate of supply. Charging can be stopped during peak hours if needed, which in turn reduces stress on the local grid. These time-of-use strategies can move an average of 60% of EV energy needs away from peak times.¹²

For vehicles-to-anything charging, the batteries in EVs act as energy storage, providing back-up capacity to national and local grid networks. This could fundamentally change the dynamics by turning EVs from a consumer of electricity into a power provider—and hence part of the solution to shave peak demand.

Find out more about EV readiness across the UK and in other important markets in Europe and globally from the rEV Index.

About the author:

Dr Alison Pridmore is the transport lead in the IEA’s Energy Efficiency Division, working on the E4, emerging economies, programme. Alison’s work covers electric vehicles including charging infrastructure, the benchmarking of transport use and the development of transport roadmaps focusing on energy efficiency. Prior to joining the IEA, Alison was a principal consultant at Aether—an environmental consultancy. Her work included looking at the multiple benefits of energy efficiency and the consideration of electric vehicles from a life cycle perspective. Alison has a PhD in transport—her research examined social and spatial influences on the take-up of new vehicle technologies.