Trade in
Transition
2024

About the research

Trade in Transition, a research programme led by Economist Impact and supported by DP World, is dedicated to understanding private-sector sentiment and untangling key trends in global trade and supply chains. It aims to enable businesses to navigate the complexities of the global economy, make informed decisions, and adapt their strategies to the ever-evolving economic landscape.

In this fourth edition of the programme, we investigate 'new globalisation': a new era in global trade and supply chains, defined by heightened geopolitical risk, climate change urgencies, and technological advancements. These forces are reconfiguring the global trading system and supply-chain organisation, shifting the focus from efficiency gains to strategic resilience and adaptability.

Our research is based on a global survey of 3,500 senior executives, designed to capture their trade and supply chain practices, as well as their sentiments for the year ahead. The survey targets leaders across a diverse range of industries and from all global regions (North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, the Middle East, Africa, and South America). Alongside our survey, we conducted quantitative trade analysis that leverages the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) to model three hypothetical scenarios for the global economy under heightened geopolitical risk.

This information is invaluable for businesses, offering insights to inform their strategies. It aims to position their trade and supply chain operations to better absorb and respond to both current and future disruptions.